A Case Study in Applying the IUCN Regional Guidelines for National Red Lists and Justifications for their Modification

Abstract:  The World Conservation Union (IUCN) published guidelines to apply the criteria developed for global red lists at subglobal levels. So far only a few national red lists have been prepared according to these regional guidelines. We present a procedure based on the regional guidelines that was developed for the most recent red list of breeding birds in Switzerland. Special attention was given to step 2 of the IUCN regional guidelines, which consists of adapting categories according to an assessment of the extent to which extinction risk of the national population is affected by populations in neighboring countries. To avoid subjective assessments we formalized this "up- and downgrading" procedure by defining rules to answer the questions asked in the regional guidelines. Some modifications to the assessment procedure were introduced to account for the specific situation of applying it to birds as a very mobile group and Switzerland as a small country. The up- and downgrading procedure resulted in a change in category for 49 of the 195 bird species assessed. Overall, 9 species were upgraded, 21 species were downgraded by one category, and 19 species were downgraded by two categories. Formalizing step 2 allowed consistent application of the regional guidelines for all species and will make future revisions of the national red list and comparisons between different lists easier.     

Site‐Occupancy Distribution Modeling to Correct Population‐Trend Estimates Derived from Opportunistic Observations

Abstract: Species’ assessments must frequently be derived from opportunistic observations made by volunteers (i.e., citizen scientists). Interpretation of the resulting data to estimate population trends is plagued with problems, including teasing apart genuine population trends from variations in observation effort. We devised a way to correct for annual variation in effort when estimating trends in occupancy (species distribution) from faunal or floral databases of opportunistic observations. First, for all surveyed sites, detection histories (i.e., strings of detection–nondetection records) are generated. Within‐season replicate surveys provide information on the detectability of an occupied site. Detectability directly represents observation effort; hence, estimating detectablity means correcting for observation effort. Second, site‐occupancy models are applied directly to the detection‐history data set (i.e., without aggregation by site and year) to estimate detectability and species distribution (occupancy, i.e., the true proportion of sites where a species occurs). Site‐occupancy models also provide unbiased estimators of components of distributional change (i.e., colonization and extinction rates). We illustrate our method with data from a large citizen‐science project in Switzerland in which field ornithologists record opportunistic observations. We analyzed data collected on four species: the widespread Kingfisher (Alcedo atthis) and Sparrowhawk (Accipiter nisus) and the scarce Rock Thrush (Monticola saxatilis) and Wallcreeper (Tichodroma muraria). Our method requires that all observed species are recorded. Detectability was <1 and varied over the years. Simulations suggested some robustness, but we advocate recording complete species lists (checklists), rather than recording individual records of single species. The representation of observation effort with its effect on detectability provides a solution to the problem of differences in effort encountered when extracting trend information from haphazard observations. We expect our method is widely applicable for global biodiversity monitoring and modeling of species distributions.     

The Future Role of Natural Gas in Europe

This paper provides an overview of the Western European natural gas market and discusses its future development. Price data are presented. Current utilization is evaluated and projection of future consumption of natural gas by market sectors is given. The factors effecting future demand for natural gas as well as those effecting price are evaluated. The author concludes that it is unlikely that natural gas reserves indigenous to Western Europe will be sufficient to meet future demands. Importation of natural gas from outside the area will be necessary. Potential natural gas exporters to Western Europe are identified. Cet article présente une vue d'ensemble du marché du gaz naturel de l'Europe occidentale et étudie ses possibilités de développement. II donne également des indications sur l'évolution des prix. De plus, il passe en revue son usage courant ainsi que les tendances de sa consommation future par marchés sectoriels. L'article étudie aussi les facteurs affectant la demande future de même que ceux affectant les prix. L'auteur conclut qu'il est peu probable que les réserves de gaz naturel domestique de l'Europe occidentale soient suffisantes pour répondre à la demande future. L'importation du gaz naturel apparaît donc comme une nécessité. Enfin, les exportateurs éventuels de gaz naturel à destination de l'Europe occidentale sont répertoriés. Este artículo presenta una visión general del mercado de gas natural en Europa Occidental y analiza su desarrollo futuro. Se presenta información sobre precios y se evalúa la utilización presente y proyección futura del consumo de gas natural por sectores. Se evalúa también los factores que afectan la demanda y precios futuros del gas. El autor concluye que es improbable que el gas natural de Europa Occidental sea suficiente para cubrir la demanda futura de gas. La importación de gas será por tanto necesaria. En el artículo se identifican los exportadores potenciales de gas natural destinado a Europa Occidental.